Blackjack Dealer Hands
are dealer hand total and bust frequencies?
Much is made of the dealer bust rates by some voodoo Blackjack
system sellers. In this chart, the percentages of each possible
final dealer hand are displayed for tables with 1, 3 and 6 players.
At the far right you will find the overall dealer bust rates. Blue
displays the dealer totals at a table with one player. Here we note
that the dealer does end up with totals of 4 through 16. But, there
are almost no hands at these totals when there are other players
at the table. This is because the dealer will not draw cards if
the player busts or receives a Blackjack. But with a full table,
it is unlikely that every player will bust or get a Blackjack
so the dealer will nearly always need to complete his/her hand.
When we look at the overall bust rates, we see that a single-player
table sees substantially fewer dealer busts. But, this has no
effect on your advantage. It simply means that the dealer needs
to finish the hand for other players at the table. It should be
noted that the dealer bust rate can also be affected by decks and
rules. What it comes down to is that dealer bust rate is useless
does this look by dealer upcard?
This chart provides the dealer bust final-hand rates for a three-player
table broken down by dealer upcard. For example, red bars are the
final-hand percentages for an Ace up. 4-16 are tiny numbers and
have been removed.
about by true count?
This chart displays the dealer final hands by true counts -6 through
+12. Busts are in cyan. What this chart tells us is that the dealer
bust rate is actually lower when the count is high. That is, a high
dealer bust rate is more likely to indicate a good table than a
bad table as thought by followers of TARGET and other voodoo strategies.
The reason can be seen by the orange line. The dealer receives substantially
more tens since there are more tens in the deck in high-count situations.
Fortunately, the player also receives more good hands, more Blackjacks
and makes more on insurance, doubles and splits. On balance, the
player fares much better at high counts even with a lower dealer
- Six decks, S17, DAS, 1, 3 & 6 players, Hi-Lo, truncate,
Sweet 16 indexes, half-deck resolution, 5/6 penetration, Spread
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