First Two Cards Win Rates
Blackjack hands get the money?
First we looked at how often we receive each hand. Then at the
advantage of each hand. Now we look at the overall win rate or gain
from each hand. What's the difference between advantage and win
rate? Well a hand may have a high advantage when we get it. But
if we don't get it very often, it's overall value is less. Win rate
is advantage times frequency and tells us the overall money won
or lost for each possible hand. This chart looks somewhat like the
Advantage chart. Blackjacks are still the most valuable hands. However,
pairs and soft hands now show a very small gain or loss due to their
low frequency. (Note to card counters this is why newer counting
strategies usually don't bother with indexes for these hands.) Ten,
Ten is very important not only because it is a good hand but because
it occurs so frequently. The Advantage chart showed 16 to be the
worst hand. Not surprising as you will probably lose when you get
it. But this chart shows 13 and 15 as the worst hands for overall
results because you will still probably lose them, but they occur
a bit more often.
about single-deck Blackjack?
The differences between the win rates in six decks and single-deck
look quite different from the differences in advantage. Wherever
you see a bar pointing upward, that hand is responsible for more
gain in single-deck than in six decks. Here we see that Blackjacks
are more valuable in single-deck, because they occur at a slightly
higher frequency and are less likely to tie with a dealer Blackjack
in single-deck. All Pairs occur less often in single-deck than in
six decks. This doesn't matter much for pairs or Aces through nines
as they don't occur often. But pairs of Tens are very common. Therefore
we see that six-deck games enjoy substantially more gain from Ten,
Ten since the frequency of those hands increases with six decks.
Single-deck sees a higher win rate in hands 9, 10 and 11 because
both the frequency and advantage is higher in single-deck.
- Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, Heads-Up, Basic Strategy, 75% Penetration
- Single-deck, H17, nDAS, Heads-Up, Basic Strategy, Six Rounds
- Ten billion rounds each