First Two Cards Advantage
are the good Blackjack hands?
Here we see the same 34 hands. But instead of the frequency of
each hand, we see the advantage of each hand. That is, average gain
or loss if you get the hand. Obviously Blackjack is the best hand
to receive at just under 150% advantage. The advantage would be
exactly 150% except that sometimes the dealer will also get a Blackjack.
The next best hand is a 20, either ten, ten or ace, nine followed
by 19 and 11. Pairs are not good hands overall except for pairs
of aces and tens and to a lesser extent nines. Although this is
heavily dependent on the dealer upcard. As you would expect, stiffs
(12-16) are the worst hands. But 17 is nearly as bad. Most players
feel safe with a 17, but it wins only about 29% of the time and
pushes 13% of the time. Most soft hands also don't fare well even
though you may have two chances to improve them.
about single-deck Blackjack?
Now let us look at the difference in advantage between six decks
and single-deck. Wherever you see a bar pointing upward, that hand
is more advantageous in single-deck. If the bar points downward,
the hand is more advantageous in shoes. For example, ace, ace is
substantially more valuable in single-deck games. This is partly
due to the fact that there are only two aces left making it unlikely
that the dealer has a Blackjack. But it's more due to the fact that
the dealer is less likely to have a soft hand reducing dealer busts.
In fact most of the hands that contain an ace are better in single-deck
games. Pairs are substantially worse in the single-deck game in
these sims for two reasons. First, Resplits are substantially less
likely in single-deck games. Secondly because the single-deck game
examined here was simmed without the Double after Split rule - less
common in single-deck.
- Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, Heads-Up, Basic Strategy, 75% Penetration
- Single-deck, H17, nDAS, Heads-Up, Basic Strategy, Six Rounds
- Ten billion rounds each