Peeking at Hole Cards
is the gain from peeking
at hole cards?
Obviously the most valuable card to get a peek at is the dealer
hole card. With this knowledge you can forget normal strategies.
Hole-carding strategies tell you exactly how to play knowing both
dealer cards. Theoretically the gain can be enormous with a SCORE
of over 10,000. However, the practical gain is limited because:
- We will not see every downcard
- We cannot always play ideally. For example, if the dealer has
20 and you have 19 you cannot win without hitting. But hitting
will draw enormous attention.
- Always betting insurance correctly will also draw attention.
- Sometimes we will obtain only partial information. For example,
the card has or has not pips near the edge or corner.
This chart shows the advantages for single-deck and six-deck games
assuming that we see 0, 1%, 5% and 10% of the dealer's hole cards.
No card counting is used and play is ideal. We can see that in single-deck,
if we see only 1 out of 100 cards we nearly break even. The advantage
quickly increases with additional cards.
- Six decks, 4.81/6 penetration, S17, DAS, 1 player, Basic Strategy
and ideal HC strategy for six decks
- Single-deck, 3 players, 3 rounds, H17, Basic Strategy and ideal
HC strategy for single-deck
- Two billion rounds each